According to Matt Hougan, most crypto airdrops follow a four-step pattern culminating in early adopters dumping the token and abandoning the platform, creating immediate sell pressure and weak user retention (source: Matt Hougan on X, Aug 29, 2025). For traders, this points to heightened dump risk around claim and TGE windows and suggests caution with momentum entries into farm-driven airdrops where retention is likely to break down (source: Matt Hougan on X, Aug 29, 2025).